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28.02.2020 10:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD for February 28. Panic in the stock markets, coronavirus, 下载交易平台II流动版 and oil's collapse
On February 27, the EUR / USD pair immediately added 120 points and continued to push off quotes from the previously reached lows, as well as building a new upward wave, possibly 4 in the downward part of the trend, or 1 in the new upward one. After yesterday's strong increase in the 下载交易平台II流动版 下载交易平台II流动版 Euro currency, I am even inclined to believe that the downward trend section, starting on December 31, took a three-wave form and completed its construction. The previous few sections of the trend were also three-wave. Thus, it is highly probable that the pair is now building wave 1 and in the near future will be building wave 下载交易平台II流动版 下载交易平台II流动版 2 with targets located about 9th figure.
The news background for the EUR / USD instrument on February 27 下载交易平台II流动版 was quite interesting. There will be reports on orders for durable goods in the US, as well as preliminary data 下载交易平台II流动版 on US GDP for the fourth quarter. However, markets are currently not paying attention to the economic statistics, but to extraordinary events in the world. Despite the fact that the levels of coronavirus infection cannot yet be called 下载交易平台II流动版 high, it still continues to spread throughout the world. The governments of the countries in which the mass infections occurred, of course, declare quarantine, which negatively affects the production and simply the activities of many firms, companies and corporations. The most acute problem is, of course, in China, where the whole region and other regions are quarantined. Accordingly, 下载交易平台II流动版 business activity, production, and demand for raw materials and energy is declining, which leads to a whole host of other problems. The main of which is the slowdown of the economy. In this regard, the oil collapsed yesterday to $ 45 per barrel, as well as US stock indices. I can't say that the collapse of 下载交易平台II流动版 stock markets caused the dollar to decline. Moreover, it decreases only in the EUR / USD instrument, and, for 下载交易平台II流动版 example, with the pound sterling, it increases. Nevertheless, the state of the currency market cannot be called stable and normal 下载交易平台II流动版 下载交易平台II流动版 now. Some panic is already present.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The euro-dollar pair has allegedly begun the construction of a new ascending section. Based on the current wave counting, I recommend waiting for the completion of waves 1 下载交易平台II流动版 as well as 2, and using MACD signals to buy euro currency within wave 3. The upward trend section 下载交易平台II流动版 下载交易平台II流动版 began quite abruptly, and the wave pattern now does not have a completely unambiguous view.
On February 27, GBP 下载交易平台II流动版 / USD pair lost about 15 basis points and supposedly completed the construction of wave e in 2 or b. If 下载交易平台II流下载交易平台II流动版 动版 the current wave marking is correct, then the decline in quotes will continue within the framework of wave 下载交易平台II流动版 3 or from a downward trend section. At the same time, a great complication of the current wave marking suggests that it is difficult for markets to decide on a trading strategy, and therefore, wave 3 or c 下载交易平台II流动版 may take on a more complicated form than is currently assumed.
The news background for the GBP / USD instrument on Thursday was similar. Demand for the US dollar remained stable throughout the day, and economic statistics supported the US currency. However, the reasons for the increase in the dollar may be not only data from the United States. Boris Johnson and his government bring Britain closer to Brexit without agreement. It has recently become known that Britain is ready to leave negotiations with Michel Barnier's group if it sees that there is no progress. In 下载交易平台II流动版 addition, Boris Johnson believes that Britain should get the agreement that he wants, like "Canadian" or "Australian". The European Union, on the other hand, is not ready to simply satisfy all the requests of the British prime minister and, in exchange, puts forward a number of conditions that Boris Johnson is not already satisfied with. Thus, the 下载交易平台II流动版 下载交易平台II流动版 British can decline under the general oppression of the problems associated with the negotiations.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The pound / dollar instrument has complicated the current wave marking, which has now taken on a much more extended form. Thus, I recommend selling the instrument with targets located around the level of 1.2767, which corresponds to 下载交易平台II流动版 50.0% Fibonacci.
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18.02.2021 13:20 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: plan for the US session on February 18 (analysis of morning trades)
In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3843 and recommended acting on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about where and how you could earn money. The unsuccessful attempt of the bears to continue the downward trend led to the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.3843. In 下载交易平台II流动版 this scenario, even in my morning forecast, I recommended opening long positions. Everything happened exactly according to the script. The target was the resistance of 1.3899, which the pound reached without a single correction, thereby proving the presence of a large buyer in the market. We will analyze the scenario for further purchases below.
The best option for building up long positions is a downward correction to the support area of 1.3899, where the 下载交易平台II流动版 formation of a false breakout forms a convenient entry point into long positions in the continuation of the bull market. It 下载交易平台II流动版下载交易平台II流动版 i> is important to understand: the growth from this level should be quite rapid with an update of the highs of today and preferably with a resistance test of 1.3949, where I recommend taking the profits. If 下载交易平台II流动版 there is no downward correction, then we will focus on the level of 1.3949, but I recommend buying from it only in the case of a breakthrough and a test of this area from top to bottom, along with bad data on the US labor market and real estate. In this case, we can expect to reach 下载交易平台II流动版 the new resistance area of 1.3993. If there is no activity on the part of the bulls in 下载交易平台II流动版 the support area of 1.3899, I recommend postponing long positions until the test of the minimum of 1.3843, from which you can open long positions immediately on the rebound to correct 25-30 points within the day. There is also the lower border of the current ascending channel.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need to:
The bears did not cope with the initial task, and now all their attention will be focused on the 下载交易平台II流动版 resistance of 1.3949. However, the formation of a false breakout will be a signal to open short positions on the pound. The main goal will be the return of GBP/USD to the support area of 1.3899. To 下载交易平台II流动版 say that the bears managed to repel the attack of buyers: it will be possible only after there are a breakdown and consolidation below 1.3899, and the test of this level from the bottom up forms 下载交易平台II流动版 a convenient entry point into short positions to reduce to the minimum of the day in the area of 1.3843, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of a lack of activity of sellers in the resistance area of 1.3949, it is best to postpone sales for a rebound from the high of 1.3993 in the expectation of a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day.
Let me remind you that 下载交易平台II流动版 the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for February 9 recorded a sharp increase in long non-commercial positions and a reduction in short ones. This led to a fairly large increase in the positive delta. The bulls are making their way to new highs taking advantage of the good news on vaccination in the UK. Last week's report 下载交易平台II流动版 on UK GDP led only to a larger build-up of long positions in the expectation of a strong economic recovery in early 2021. Long non-profit positions rose from the level of 53,658 to the level of 60,513. At the same time, the short non-profit declined from the level of 44,042 to the level of 39,395, which only strengthened the bullish sentiment. As a result, the non-profit net position rose to 21,118, up 下载交易平台II流动版 from 9,616 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3745 against 1.3675. The fact that 下载交易平台II流动版 下载交易平台II流动版 the bulls held their positions on such high volatility within the week once again suggests that the pair is 下载交易平台II流动版 下载交易平台II流动版 set to overcome the annual highs and quickly return to the area of the 40th figure. I recommend betting on further strengthening of the pound. As the quarantine measures are lifted, which are expected to be phased out in February this year, demand for the pound will only increase. In March, we expect news about the support of the population and the UK labor market, which also pushes the pound up now.
Signals of indicators:
Trading is already above 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a market turn in the direction of buyers.
Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ 下载交易平台II流动版 from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
In the event of 下载交易平台II流动版 下载交易平台II流动版 a decline in the pound, the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3800 will provide support.